danДоклады Национальной академии наук БеларусиDoklady of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus1561-83232524-2431The Republican Unitary Enterprise Publishing House "Belaruskaya Navuka"10.29235/1561-8323-2023-67-1-66-73dan-1113Research ArticleНАУКИ О ЗЕМЛЕEARTH SCIENCESПовышение точности краткосрочных численных прогнозов погоды для территории Беларуси с использованием мезомасштабной модели WRF и данных дистанционного зондирования ЗемлиImproving the accuracy of short-term numerical weather forecasts for the territory of Belarus using the mesoscale WRF model and earth remote sensing dataЛысенкоС. А.LysenkoS. A.

Лысенко Сергей Александрович – д-р физ.-мат. наук, профессор, директор

ул. Ф. Скорины, 10, 220076, Минск

Lysenko Sergey A. – D. Sc. (Physical and Mathematical), Professor, Director

10, F. Skorina Str., 220076, Minsk

lysenko.nature@gmail.comЗайкоП. О.ZaikoP. O.

Зайко Полина Олеговна – науч. сотрудник

ул. Ф. Скорины, 10, 220076, Минск

Zaiko Polina O. – Researcher. Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus

10, F. Skorina Str., 220076

nature@ecology.basnet.byИнститут природопользования Национальной академии наук БеларусиInstitute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus2023040320236716673Copyright © Лысенко С.А., Зайко П.О., 20232023Лысенко С.А., Зайко П.О.Lysenko S.A., Zaiko P.O.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://doklady.belnauka.by/jour/article/view/1113

Рассмотрена задача повышения точности численных прогнозов погоды для Беларуси на основе применяемой в национальной гидрометеорологической службе модели WRF за счет ассимиляции в ней данных дистанционного зондирования Земли. Показано, что для зимнего периода использование в модели спутниковых данных высокого пространственного разрешения по структуре землепользования, альбедо, листовом индексе и фотосинтетически активной радиации, поглощаемой подстилающей поверхностью, позволяет сократить среднеквадратическую погрешность краткосрочного прогноза приземной температуры воздуха (до 48 ч) на 0,53–1,11 °С. Для летнего периода на основе численных экспериментов установлен оптимальный коэффициент коррекции альбедо подстилающей поверхности, позволяющий сократить cреднеквадратическую погрешность прогноза температуры на метеорологических станциях Беларуси для заблаговременности +12, +24, + 36 и +48 ч в среднем на 0,30, 0,10, 0,15 и 0,16 °С соответственно.

The problem of improving the WRF numerical weather model performance for the territory of Belarus by assimilating the Earth remote sensing data is considered. It is shown that for the winter period, the use of satellite data of high spatial resolution, including on the structure of land use , albedo, leaf index and photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the underlying surface can reduce a root-mean-square error of the short-term forecast (up to 48 h) of the air surface temperature by 0.53–1.11 °С. For the summer period, on the basis of numerical experiments the optimal correction factor for the land surface albedo was estimated. This made it possible to reduce a root-mean-square error of temperature forecast at the meteorological stations of Belarus for the lead time of +12, +24, +36, and +48 h by an average of 0.30 °С, 0.10 °С, 0.15 °С, and 0.16 °С, respectively.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.