Mathematical modeling of the vaccination influence on the COVID-19 epidemic propagation
https://doi.org/10.29235/1561-8323-2022-66-3-274-279
Abstract
The mathematical model based on a system of ordinary differential equations is proposed to describe the effect of the vaccination rate on the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. The results of numerical modeling are presented for the case when vaccination begins after the beginning of the epidemic. A dimensionless vaccination parameter V was obtained, which allows one to characterize the effect of the vaccination rate on the reduction of the incidence of viral diseases with different virulence levels in a large closed population of people. Introducing this parameter allows the simulation results to be generalized to the populations of different size, different epidemic spread rate, different vaccination rate, and different vaccine efficiency. It has been shown that increasing the parameter V decreases the proportion of the sick population. It follows from our model that the vaccination influence on the spread of a respiratory viral disease such as COVID-19 decreases for a later initiation of vaccination. The simulation results should contribute to the development of optimal vaccination scenarios for the population.
Keywords
coronavirus,
COVID-19,
vaccination,
mathematical modeling,
population size,
distribution coefficient
Supporting agencies: The authors are much grateful for the support of the Belarusian Republican Foundation for Fundamental Research (Grant Т21КОВИД-033).
About the Authors
P. S. Grinchuk
A. V. Luikov Heat and Mass Transfer Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
Belarus
Belarus
Grinchuk Pavel S. – Corresponding Member, D. Sc. (Physics and Mathematics), Head of the Department
15, P. Brovkа Str., 220072, Minsk
S. P. Fisenko
A. V. Luikov Heat and Mass Transfer Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
Belarus
Belarus
Fisenko Sergei P. – D. Sc. (Physics and Mathematics), Chief Researcher
15, P. Brovkа Str., 220072, Minsk
A. I. Shnip
A. V. Luikov Heat and Mass Transfer Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
Belarus
Belarus
Shnip Alexander I. – Ph. D. (Physics and Mathematics), Head of the Laboratory
15, P. Brovkа Str., 220072, Minsk
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