GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES AND THEIR POSSIBLE REASONS
Abstract
There is a big uncertainty of the assessments of the effect of “small” climate formative factor (solar and geomagnetic activity, geophysical parameters of the Earth, planetary effects, etc.) on the climate. The objective of the article is to assess global climate changes and their causes. For the first time, when analyzing the character and closeness of solar-atmospheric connections, the approach based on the simplified 22-year cycle model of the solar activity and running trends of temperature anomalies is applied. The obtained results are verified with a wide use of various methods for assessment of their statistical significance. The analysis of the changes in the linear trends of global temperature anomalies has shown a distinct and statistically significant manifestation of a 22-year magnetic solar cycle in the space-temporal changes of trend values. The closeness of the connection of 22-year solar cycles and the values of the linear trends of the temperature anomalies appeared to be somewhat higher in the winter than in other year seasons. The alternative scenario of Globe climate changes in the near future, assuming a decrease in the values of the Globe temperature anomalies in 2017–2019 (2020) by 0.1–0.2 °С in comparison with the previous period (2014–2016), is offered.
About the Authors
V. F. Loginov
Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
Belarus
Academician, D. Sc. (Geography), Chief researcher
Belarus
Academician, D. Sc. (Geography), Chief researcher
V. S. Mikutskiy
Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
Belarus
Ph. D. (Physics and Mathematics), Leading Researcher
Belarus
Ph. D. (Physics and Mathematics), Leading Researcher
References
1. Israel Iu. A. (ed.) Possibilities of prevention of climate changes negative consequences. Problems of the Kyoto Protocol. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 2006, 408 p. (in Russian).
2. Gruza G. V., Rankova E. Ya. Observed and expected climate changes over Russia: surface air temperature. Moscow, IGKE Publ., 2012, 194 p. (in Russian).
3. Perevedentcev Iu. P. The climate theory. Kazan, Kazan State University Publ., 2009. 504 p. (in Russian).
4. Stoker T. F., Qin D., Plattner G.-K., Tignor M., Allen S. K., Boschung J., Nauels A., Xia Y., Bex V., Midgley P.M. (eds.) IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013. 1535 p. doi.org/10.1017/ CBO9781107415324
5. Budyko M. I. Climate in the past and future. Leningrad, Gidrometeo Publ., 1980, 351 p. (in Russian).
6. Polonskiy A. B. Role of ocean in climate changes. Kiev, Navukova dumka Publ., 2008, 169 p. (in Russian).
7. Mokhov I. I., Timazhev A. V., Lupo A. R. Changes in atmospheric blocking characteristics within Euro-Atlantic region and Nothern Hemisphere as a whole in the 21st century from model simulations using RCP anthropogenic scenarios. Global and Planetary Change, 2014, vol. 122, pp. 265–270. doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.09.004
8. Ol A. I., Sherstiukov B. G., Trofimenko L. T. The catalogue of indexes of solar and geomagnetic activity. Obninsk, 1979, 152 p. (in Russian).
9. Loginov V. F. Trends, «jumps» and pauses in global and regional temperature change and theirpossible causes. Ukrainian Geographical Journal, 2015, no. 1, pp. 12–19. doi.org/10.15407/ugz2015.01.012
10. Datsenko N. M., Monin A. S., Berestov A. A., Ivanchenko N. N., Sonechkin D. M. On global climate oscillations over the last 150 years. Doklady Akademii Nauk [Reports of Russian Academy of Sciences], 2004, vol. 399, no. 2, pp. 253–256 (in Russian).
11. Ol A. I., Ol G. I. New method of the superlong-term forecast of solar activity. Izvestiya Akademii nauk SSSR. Seriya fizicheskaya [Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Physics], 1980, vol. 44, no. 12, pp. 2369–2373 (in Russian).
12. NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: Global Time Series, published July 2016. Available at: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/ (accessed 16 August 2016).
13. Nikolaev A. V., Gamburtsev A. G. (eds.). Atlas of natural processes. Vol. 1: Order and chaos in lithosphere and other spheres. Moscow, Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences Publ., 1994. 176 p. (in Russian).
14. Statistica. The complete user’s guide. Ch. 11. StatSoft Russia. 2001. Available at: http://gendocs.ru/v1319/?cc=3&view= pdf (accessed 07 February 2017).
15. Kobzar A. I. Applied mathematical statistics. For engineers and scientist. Moscow, Fizmatlit Publ., 2006. 816 p. (in Russian).
Review
Views: 950
Email this article 