Climate change in Belarus: analysis, forecast and assessment of impacts

This paper presents the results of an analysis of the climate of Belarus during the warmest recent decades (since 2000). It highlights key quasi-cyclical patterns in changes to average monthly meteorological parameters, which explain why these parameters deviate from trends associated with global warming. The paper presents forecasts, verified against retrospective data, from regionally optimised ensembles of global climate models for the period up to 2050, including the duration of the growing season and frost-free period, accumulated active temperatures, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, groundwater levels, as well as the frequency and duration of extreme weather events. Based on the calculations carried out, the impacts of projected climate change have been estimated on water resources and the biological productivity of agroecosystems in the region.

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