GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES AND THEIR POSSIBLE REASONS
Abstract
There is a big uncertainty of the assessments of the effect of “small” climate formative factor (solar and geomagnetic activity, geophysical parameters of the Earth, planetary effects, etc.) on the climate. The objective of the article is to assess global climate changes and their causes. For the first time, when analyzing the character and closeness of solar-atmospheric connections, the approach based on the simplified 22-year cycle model of the solar activity and running trends of temperature anomalies is applied. The obtained results are verified with a wide use of various methods for assessment of their statistical significance. The analysis of the changes in the linear trends of global temperature anomalies has shown a distinct and statistically significant manifestation of a 22-year magnetic solar cycle in the space-temporal changes of trend values. The closeness of the connection of 22-year solar cycles and the values of the linear trends of the temperature anomalies appeared to be somewhat higher in the winter than in other year seasons. The alternative scenario of Globe climate changes in the near future, assuming a decrease in the values of the Globe temperature anomalies in 2017–2019 (2020) by 0.1–0.2 °С in comparison with the previous period (2014–2016), is offered.
About the Authors
V. F. Loginov
Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
Belarus
Academician, D. Sc. (Geography), Chief researcher
Belarus
Academician, D. Sc. (Geography), Chief researcher
V. S. Mikutskiy
Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
Belarus
Ph. D. (Physics and Mathematics), Leading Researcher
Belarus
Ph. D. (Physics and Mathematics), Leading Researcher
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