Effect of large-scale modes of total variability of the atmosphere and ocean in the Atlantic-European region on the climate of Belarus
https://doi.org/10.29235/1561-8323-2020-64-5-609-616
Abstract
We have established the relationships of quasicyclic components in changes of air temperature and precipitation in Belarus with large-scale modes of general variability of the atmosphere and ocean in the Atlantic-European region. When the summer air temperature changes in Belarus and in Eastern Europe, a quasi-60-year oscillation is identified, which coincides in phase with the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. It is shown that the time series of winter air temperature in Belarus contain a quasi-8-year component synchronized with a similar component of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Moreover, the periods of acceleration and deceleration of winter warming in Belarus coincide with the upward and downward quasi-30-year phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. The latter are also consistent with fluctuations in moisture content in Belarus and Europe. Based on the established patterns, we have concluded that the rapid rise in winter temperatures, slowing down of summer warming and deterioration in water supply in the southern regions of Belarus observed in the last decade are part of a natural cycle lasting about 30 years, developing against the background of a long-term trend of anthropogenic global warming.
About the Authors
S. A. Lysenko
Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
Belarus
Belarus
Lysenko Sergey A. - D. Sc. (Physics and Mathematics), Professor, Director, Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus.
10, F. Skorina Str., 220114, Minsk.
V. F. Loginov
Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
Belarus
Belarus
Loginov Vladimir F. - Academician, D. Sc. (Geography), Professor, Chief researcher, Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus.
10, F. Skorina Str., 220114, Minsk.
I. V. Buyakov
Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
Belarus
Belarus
Buyakov Ivan V. - Junior researcher, Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus.
10, F. Skorina Str., 220114, Minsk.
References
1. Loginov V. F., Lysenko S. A., Mel'nik V. I. Climate changes in Belarus: reasons, consequences, possibilities of regulation. 2nd ed. Minsk, 2020. 264 p. (in Russian).
2. Loginov V. F., Lysenko S. A. Modern changes of global and regional climate. Minsk, 2019. 315 p. (in Russian).
3. Marshall J., Kushnir Yo., Battisti D., Chang P., Czaja A., Dickson R., Hurrell J., McCartney M., Saravanan R., Vis-beck M. North Atlantic climate variability: phenomena impact and mechanisms. International Journal of Climatology, 2001, vol. 21, no. 15, pp. 1863-1898. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.693
4. Rahmstorf S. Ocean circulation and climate during the past 120,000 years. Nature, 2002, vol. 419, no. 6903, pp. 207-214. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01090
5. Byshev V. I., Neiman V. G., Anisimov M. V., Gusev A. V., Serykh I. V., Sidorova A. N., Figurkin A. L., Anisimov I. M. Multi-decadal oscillations of the ocean active upper-layer heat content. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2017, vol. 174, no. 7, pp. 2863-2878. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-017-1557-3
6. Hu S., Fedorov A. V. The extreme El Nino of 2015-2016 and the end of global warming hiatus. Geophysical Research Letters, 2017, vol. 44, no. 8, pp. 3816-3824. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl072908
7. Loginov V. F., Lysenko S. A. Estimation of the role of the Pacific in modern climate changes. Izvestiya Rossiiskoi akademii nauk. Seriya geograficheskaya [Proceedings of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Geographic series], 2019, no. 3, pp. 3-12 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.31857/S2587-5566201933-12
8. Polonskii A. B. Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its manifestations in the Atlantic-European region. Physical Oceanography, 2008, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 227-236. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11110-008-9020-8
9. Ba J., Keenlyside N. S., Park W., Latif M., Hawkins E., Ding H. A mechanism for Atlantic multidecadal variability in the Kiel Climate Model. Climate Dynamics, 2013, vol. 41, no. 7-8, pp. 2133-2144. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1633-4
10. Knudsen M. F., Seidenkrantz M.-S., Jacobsen B. H., Kuijpers A. Tracking the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation through the last 8,000 years. Nature Communications, 2011, vol. 2, no. 1. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1186
11. Ottera O. H., Drange H., Bentsen M., Kvamsta N. G., Jiang D. Transient response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to enhanced freshwater input to the Nordic Seas - Arctic Ocean in the Bergen Climate Model. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 2004, vol. 56, no. 4, pp. 342-361. https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v56i4.14421
12. Sarafanov A. On the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation on temperature and salinity of the subpolar North Atlantic intermediate and deep waters. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2009, vol. 66, no. 7, pp. 1448-1454. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp094
13. Sun C., Li J., Jin F.-F. A delayed oscillator model for the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO. Climate Dynamics, 2015, vol. 45, no. 7-8, pp. 2083-2099. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2459-z
14. Nesterov E. S. North Atlantic Oscillation: atmosphere and ocean. Moscow, 2013. 144 p. (in Russian).
15. Polonsky A. B., Sukhonos P. A. North Atlantic oscillation and upper layer heat balance in the North Atlantic. Fundamental'naya i prikladnaya klimatologiya = Fundamental and Apllied Climatology, 2019, no. 4, pp. 67-100 (in Russian).
Review
Views: 748
Email this article 